Dynamic assessment of surge capacity in a large hospital network during COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has provided an unprecedented scenario to deepen knowledge of surge capacity (SC), assessment of which remains a challenge. This study reports a large-scale experience of a multi-hospital network, with the aim of evaluating the characteristics of different hospitals involved in the response and of measuring a real-time SC based on two complementary modalities (actual, base) referring to the intensive care units (ICU). METHODS: Data analysis referred to two consecutive pandemic waves (March-December 2020). Regarding SC, two different levels of analysis are considered: single hospital category (referring to a six-level categorization based on the number of hospital beds) and multi-hospital wide (referring to the response of the entire hospital network). RESULTS: During the period of 114 days, the analysis revealed a key role of the biggest hospitals (>Category-4) in terms of involvement in the pandemic response. In terms of SC, Category-4 hospitals showed the highest mean SC values, irrespective of the calculation method and level of analysis. At the multi-hospital level, the analysis revealed an overall ICU-SC (base) of 84.4% and an ICU-SC (actual) of 106.5%. CONCLUSIONS: The results provide benchmarks to better understand ICU hospital response capacity, highlighting the need for a more flexible approach to SC definition.

A Review of COVID-19 Response Challenges in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has positioned fragile healthcare systems in low-income countries under pressure, leading to critical gaps in service delivery. The pandemic response demands the healthcare system to be resilient and continue provision of healthcare services. This review is aimed at describing the healthcare response challenges during the pandemic in Ethiopia. METHODOLOGY: Eligible studies dealing with challenges of the healthcare system in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Ethiopia were included. The six World Health Organization (WHO) healthcare system building blocks were used to categorize healthcare challenges. PubMed ProQuest, databases were searched, and results were summarized using systematic review synthesis. RESULTS: Financial constraints led to a shortage of mechanical ventilators. Furthermore, the pandemic hindered the capacity to avail full packages of personal protective equipment in health facilities and intensive care capacity. The pandemic also affected the delivery of maternal, child and new-born services, prevention, and treatment of childhood illness, including immunization services. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic posed various challenges to the performance of the healthcare system in Ethiopia. It is recommended that policy makers and stakeholders enhance pandemic preparedness and strengthen response capacity by considering the six WHO healthcare system building blocks.

Using Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions to Assess Primary Health Care Performance during Disasters: A Systematic Review.

Ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) are health conditions for which appropriate primary care intervention could prevent hospital admission. ACSC hospitalization rates are a well-established parameter for assessing the performance of primary health care (PHC). Although this indicator has been extensively used to monitor the performance of PHC systems in peacetime, its consideration during disasters has been neglected. The World Health Organization (WHO) has acknowledged the importance of PHC in guaranteeing continuity of care during and after a disaster for avoiding negative health outcomes. We conducted a systematic review to evaluate the extent and nature of research activity on the use of ACSCs during disasters, with an eye toward finding innovative ways to assess the level of PHC function at times of crisis. Online databases were searched to identify papers. A final list of nine publications was retrieved. The analysis of the reviewed articles confirmed that ACSCs can serve as a useful indicator of PHC performance during disasters, with several caveats that must be considered. The reviewed articles cover several disaster scenarios and a wide variety of methodologies showing the connection between ACSCs and health system performance. The strengths and weaknesses of using different methodologies are explored and recommendations are given for using ACSCs to assess PHC performance during disasters.

A Quantitative Benefit-Risk Analysis of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Vaccine among People under 60 in Italy.

The Oxford-AstraZeneca ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 is a vaccine against the COVID-19 infection that was granted a conditional marketing authorization by the European Commission in January 2021. However, following a report from the Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) of European Medicines Agency, which reported an association with thrombo-embolic events (TEE), in particular disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST), many European countries either limited it to individuals older than 55-60 years or suspended its use. We used publicly available data to carry out a quantitative benefit-risk analysis of the vaccine among people under 60 in Italy. Specifically, we used data from PRAC, Eudravigilance and ECDC to estimate the excess number of deaths for TEE, DIC and CVST expected in vaccine users, stratified by age groups. We then used data from the National Institute of Health to calculate age-specific COVID-19 mortality rates in Italy. Preventable deaths were calculated assuming a 72% vaccine efficacy over an eight-month period. Finally, the benefit-risk ratio of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination was calculated as the ratio of preventable COVID-19 deaths to vaccine-related deaths, using Monte-Carlo simulations. We found that among subjects aged 20-29 years the benefit-risk (B-R) ratio was not clearly favorable (0.70; 95% Uncertainty Interval (UI): 0.27-2.11). However, in the other age groups the benefits of vaccination largely exceeded the risks (for age 30-49, B-R ratio: 22.9: 95%UI: 10.1-186.4). For age 50-59, B-R ratio: 1577.1: 95%UI: 1176.9-2121.5). Although many countries have limited the use of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine, the benefits of using this vaccine clearly outweigh the risks in people older than 30 years. Study limitations included risk of underreporting and that we did not provide age-specific estimates. The use of this vaccine should be a strategic and fundamental part of the immunization campaign considering its safety and efficacy in preventing COVID-19 and its complications.

Simple Parameters from Complete Blood Count Predict In-Hospital Mortality in COVID-19.

INTRODUCTION: The clinical course of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is highly heterogenous, ranging from asymptomatic to fatal forms. The identification of clinical and laboratory predictors of poor prognosis may assist clinicians in monitoring strategies and therapeutic decisions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this study, we retrospectively assessed the prognostic value of a simple tool, the complete blood count, on a cohort of 664 patients (F 260; 39%, median age 70 (56-81) years) hospitalized for COVID-19 in Northern Italy. We collected demographic data along with complete blood cell count; moreover, the outcome of the hospital in-stay was recorded. RESULTS: At data cut-off, 221/664 patients (33.3%) had died and 453/664 (66.7%) had been discharged. Red cell distribution width (RDW) (χ 2 10.4; p < 0.001), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte (NL) ratio (χ 2 7.6; p = 0.006), and platelet count (χ 2 5.39; p = 0.02), along with age (χ 2 87.6; p < 0.001) and gender (χ 2 17.3; p < 0.001), accurately predicted in-hospital mortality. Hemoglobin levels were not associated with mortality. We also identified the best cut-off for mortality prediction: a NL ratio > 4.68 was characterized by an odds ratio for in-hospital mortality (OR) = 3.40 (2.40-4.82), while the OR for a RDW > 13.7% was 4.09 (2.87-5.83); a platelet count > 166,000/µL was, conversely, protective (OR: 0.45 (0.32-0.63)). CONCLUSION: Our findings arise the opportunity of stratifying COVID-19 severity according to simple lab parameters, which may drive clinical decisions about monitoring and treatment.

Just-in-Time Training in a Tertiary Referral Hospital During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy.

The COVID-19 pandemic is threatening health systems worldwide, requiring extraordinary efforts to contain the virus and prepare health care systems for unprecedented situations. In this context, the entire health care workforce must be properly trained to guarantee an effective response. Just-in-time training has been an efficient solution for rapidly equipping health care workers with new knowledge, skills, and attitudes during emergencies; thus, it could also be an effective training technique in the context of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Because of the unexpected magnitude of this health crisis, the health care workforce must be trained in 2 areas: (1) basic infection prevention and control, including public health skills that are the core of population-based health management and (2) disaster medicine principles, such as surge capacity, allocation of scarce resources, triage, and the ethical dilemmas of rationing medical care. This Perspective reports how just-in-time training concepts and methods were applied in a tertiary referral hospital in March 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic in Northern Italy, one of the hardest hit places in the world. The COVID-19 just-in-time training was designed to provide hospital staff with the competencies they need to work proficiently and safely inside the hospital, including an understanding of the working principles and standard operating procedures in place and the correct use of personal protective equipment. Moreover, this training was intended to address the basic principles of disaster medicine applied to the COVID-19 pandemic. Such training was essential in enabling staff to rapidly attain competencies that most of them lacked because disaster medicine and global health are not included in the curricula of Italian medical and nursing schools. Although a formal evaluation was not performed, this is a useful example of how to create just-in-time training in a large hospital during a crisis of an unprecedented scale.

Effect of national and local lockdowns on the control of COVID-19 pandemic: a rapid review.

OBJECTIVES: to describe and compare the effectiveness of national and local lockdowns in controlling the spread of COVID-19. METHODS: a rapid review of published and grey literature on COVID-19 pandemic was conducted following predefined eligibility criteria by searching electronic databases, repositories of pre-print articles, websites and databases of international health, and research related institutions and organisations. RESULTS: of 584 initially identified records up to 5 July 2020, 19 articles met the inclusion criteria and were included in the review. Most of the studies (No. 11) used the reproduction  number (Rt) as a measure of effect and in all of them areduction of the estimated value at post-intervention period was found. The implementation of lockdown in 11 European countries was associated with an average 82% reduction of Rt, ranging from a  posterior Rt of 0.44 (95%CI 0.26-0.61) for Norway to a posterior Rt of 0.82 (95%CI 0.73- 0.93) for  Belgium. Changes in infection rates and transmission rates were estimated in 8 studies. Daily changes in infection rates ranged from -0.6% (Sweden) to -11.3% (Hubei and Guangdong provinces). Additionally, other studies reported a change in the trend of hospitalizations (Italy, Spain) and positive effects on the  doubling time of cases (Hubei, China) after lockdown. CONCLUSIONS: results of this rapid review suggest a positive effect of the containment measures on the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, with a major effect in  countries where lockdown started early and was more restrictive. Rigorous research is warranted to evaluate which approach is the most effective in each stage of the epidemic and in specific social contexts, in particular addressing if these approaches should be implemented on the whole population or target specific risk groups.

The National Emergency Medical Service Role During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Sierra Leone.

This report describes the main adaptive and transformative changes adopted by the brand-new National Emergency Medical Service (NEMS) to face the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Sierra Leone, including ambulance re-distribution, improvements in communication flow, implementation of ad-hoc procedures and trainings, and budget re-allocation. In a time-span of four months, 1,170 COVID-19 cases have been handled by the NEMS through a parallel referral system, while efforts have been made to manage the routine emergencies of the country, causing a substantial intensification of daily activities.

Outcomes of COVID-19 patients treated with continuous positive airway pressure outside the intensive care unit.

AIM: We aimed to characterise a large population of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with moderate-to-severe hypoxaemic acute respiratory failure (ARF) receiving continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) outside the intensive care unit (ICU), and to ascertain whether the duration of CPAP application increased the risk of mortality for patients requiring intubation. METHODS: In this retrospective, multicentre cohort study, we included adult COVID-19 patients, treated with CPAP outside ICU for hypoxaemic ARF from 1 March to 15 April, 2020. We collected demographic and clinical data, including CPAP therapeutic goal, hospital length of stay and 60-day in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: The study included 537 patients with a median (interquartile range (IQR) age of 69 (60-76) years. 391 (73%) were male. According to the pre-defined CPAP therapeutic goal, 397 (74%) patients were included in the full treatment subgroup, and 140 (26%) in the do not intubate (DNI) subgroup. Median (IQR) CPAP duration was 4 (1-8) days, while hospital length of stay was 16 (9-27) days. 60-day in-hospital mortality was 34% (95% CI 0.304-0.384%) overall, and 21% (95% CI 0.169-0.249%) and 73% (95% CI 0.648-0.787%) for full treatment and DNI subgroups, respectively. In the full treatment subgroup, in-hospital mortality was 42% (95% CI 0.345-0.488%) for 180 (45%) CPAP failures requiring intubation, and 2% (95% CI 0.008-0.035%) for the remaining 217 (55%) patients who succeeded. Delaying intubation was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio 1.093, 95% CI 1.010-1.184). CONCLUSIONS: We described a large population of COVID-19 patients treated with CPAP outside ICU. Intubation delay represents a risk factor for mortality. Further investigation is needed for early identification of CPAP failures.

Fatality rate and predictors of mortality in an Italian cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

Clinical features and natural history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) differ widely among different countries and during different phases of the pandemia. Here, we aimed to evaluate the case fatality rate (CFR) and to identify predictors of mortality in a cohort of COVID-19 patients admitted to three hospitals of Northern Italy between March 1 and April 28, 2020. All these patients had a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection by molecular methods. During the study period 504/1697 patients died; thus, overall CFR was 29.7%. We looked for predictors of mortality in a subgroup of 486 patients (239 males, 59%; median age 71 years) for whom sufficient clinical data were available at data cut-off. Among the demographic and clinical variables considered, age, a diagnosis of cancer, obesity and current smoking independently predicted mortality. When laboratory data were added to the model in a further subgroup of patients, age, the diagnosis of cancer, and the baseline PaO2/FiO2 ratio were identified as independent predictors of mortality. In conclusion, the CFR of hospitalized patients in Northern Italy during the ascending phase of the COVID-19 pandemic approached 30%. The identification of mortality predictors might contribute to better stratification of individual patient risk.

Excess Deaths and Hospital Admissions for COVID-19 Due to a Late Implementation of the Lockdown in Italy.

In Italy, the COVID-19 epidemic curve started to flatten when the health system had already exceeded its capacity, raising concerns that the lockdown was indeed delayed. The aim of this study was to evaluate the health effects of late implementation of the lockdown in Italy. Using national data on the daily number of COVID-19 cases, we first estimated the effect of the lockdown, employing an interrupted time series analysis. Second, we evaluated the effect of an early lockdown on the trend of new cases, creating a counterfactual scenario where the intervention was implemented one week in advance. We then predicted the corresponding number of intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, non-ICU admissions, and deaths. Finally, we compared results under the actual and counterfactual scenarios. An early implementation of the lockdown would have avoided about 126,000 COVID-19 cases, 54,700 non-ICU admissions, 15,600 ICU admissions, and 12,800 deaths, corresponding to 60% (95%CI: 55% to 64%), 52% (95%CI: 46% to 57%), 48% (95%CI: 42% to 53%), and 44% (95%CI: 38% to 50%) reduction, respectively. We found that the late implementation of the lockdown in Italy was responsible for a substantial proportion of hospital admissions and deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Prone Positioning in Non-Intubated Patients With COVID-19 Outside of the Intensive Care Unit: More Evidence Needed.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has brought the Italian National Health System to its knees. The abnormally high influx of patients, together with the limited resources available, has forced clinicians to make unprecedented decisions and provide compassionate treatments for which little or no evidence is yet available. This is the case for the use of noninvasive positive pressure ventilation and continuous airway pressure ventilation, combined with prone position in patients with COVID-19 and acute respiratory distress syndrome treated outside of intensive care units. In our article, we comment on the evidence available, so far, and provide a brief summary of data collected at our health institution in Piedmont, Italy.

Predicted Effects of Stopping COVID-19 Lockdown on Italian Hospital Demand

Objective:Italy has been one of the first countries to implement mitigation measures to curb the COVID-19 pandemic. There is currently a debate on when and how such measures should be loosened.To forecast the demand for hospital ICU and non-ICU beds for COVID-19 patients from May-September, we developed two models, assuming a gradual easing of restrictions or an intermittent lockdown.Methods:We used a compartmental model to evaluate two scenarios: A) an intermittent lockdown;B) a gradual relaxation of the lockdown. Predicted intensive care unit (ICU) and non-ICU demand was compared with the peak in hospital bed utilization observed in April 2020.Results:Under scenario A, while ICU demand will remain below the peak, the number of non-ICU will substantially rise and will exceed it (133%;95%CI: 94-171). Under scenario B, a rise in ICU and non-ICU demand will start in July and will progressively increase over the summer 2020, reaching 95% (95%CI: 71-121) and 237% (95%CI: 191-282) of the April peak.Conclusions:Italian hospital demand is likely to remain high in the next months. If restrictions are reduced, planning for the next several months should consider an increase in healthcare resources to maintain surge capacity across the country.

Investigating the Determinants of High Case-Fatality Rate for Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Italy.

Case-Fatality Rate (CFR) for COVID-19 in Italy is apparently much higher than in other countries. Using data from Italy and other countries we evaluated the role of different determinants of this phenomenon. We found that the Italian testing strategy could explain an important part of the observed difference in CFR. In particular, the majority of patients that are currently tested in Italy have severe clinical symptoms that usually require hospitalization and this translates to a large CFR. We are confident that, once modifications in the testing strategy leading to higher population coverage are consistently adopted in Italy, CFR will realign with the values reported worldwide.

Short-Term Effects of Mitigation Measures for the Containment of the COVID-19 Outbreak: An Experience From Northern Italy.

We evaluated the short-term effects of mitigation measures imposed by the Italian government on the first 10 municipalities affected by Sars-Cov-2 spread. Our results suggest that the effects of containment measures can be appreciated in about approximately 2 wk.